Obama's 2012 Loss - the Math behind the defeat...

If you begin to look at the chance of Obama losing in 2012, the electoral math is daunting.


Let's begin with the 2008 results adjusted for the post-Census re-districting. I think even the most rabid of left leaners would agree that this is a baseline and that the chances that Obama will win MORE electoral votes than he did three years ago is zero.  No results, bad job, bad economy with anemic recovery that nobody feels is a recovery. Millions still unemployed, union friends compensated for Solyndra, GM and over 2100 health care "exemptions".


Then we'll begin with what I think are fairly obvious adjustments -- we'll give the Republicans back the electoral votes they lost in Nebraska along with Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia -- traditionally Republican states that Obama carried last time through a special magic the like of which we are not likely to see again. Not the usual Chicago dead people voting magic, magic none the less.


Let's work from that base of 219 electoral votes and assume that the following states are potential battlegrounds in 2012: Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida. We'll throw in Maine and New Jersey as stretch states as well just to be conservative. Sorry for the pun.


This gives the Republican nominee an almost unlimited number of paths to the White House.


Perhaps the most obvious one, in that it resembles the 2000 and 2004 battlegrounds most heavily, is that a Republican could win by just by taking just Florida, Ohio, and Nevada from that list of states.


Or,  the Repubicans could just tie it -- and win in a Republican-controlled House -- simply by taking Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin from the rust belt and only Nevada in the West.


Alternatively, they could win without taking a single rust-belt state by winning in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, and New Hampshire. This outcome seems like a real possibility given Florida's now rabid distate for President Zero, and Nevada's growing dislike of Senator Reid.


Another odd-looking way of doing it would be to take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and Oregon, although Ohio looks a little floppy given their propensity of voting for candidates with the most handouts.


In any event, working from this base, Obama has to take 2/3 of the electoral votes in battleground states this time around to get the job done.


And there is not enough Acorn left to plant a tree that big.