Fudging the Employment Numbers the Chicago Way

Did Team Hope and Change Fudge the Unemployment Numbers Just Prior to the 2012 Elections?

Lets look at the data!
 
Some may say that no fudging is going on because the numbers are still dismal. I'll give you that - but fudging one month's unemployment data wasn't designed to change that. It was designed to get Obama re-elected, specifically by providing him cover for the charge that he had failed to meet his 2009 promise to get the unemployment rate below 8 percent.
 
Census Data employee Buckmon himself said the falsification came on orders from higher up the food chain, which means it was systematic. If it's true that Buckmon left his job in 2011, that doesn't mean his on-the-record information about systematic falsification is any less credible. This is the sort of guy that liberals refer to as a "whistleblower" when they like what he's saying. He's a pariah when he disagrees with them.


But even that isn't the strongest proof that the numbers were faked.

The strongest proof is the numbers themselves, which are simply implausible. Maybe Democrats and low info voters will believe anything, but the rest of us are not that stupid. Consider:

The unemployment report is based on two surveys - a household survey and an employer survey. Here are the new job creation results of both surveys, by month, for the entire year of 2012 (the numbers are in thousands):

Employer Survey

Jan: 311
Feb: 271
March: 205
April: 112
May: 125
June: 87
July: 153
Aug: 165
Sept: 138
Oct: 160
Nov: 247
Dec 219

Household Survey

Jan: 712
Feb: 411
March: 1
April: -86
May: 368
Jun: 146
July: -198
August: -86
Sept: 810
Oct: 354
Nov: -51
Dec: 28  



So what Hope and Change operatives wants us to believe is that, consistent with the household survey, in November 2012, an economy that had struggled all year, and had actually lost jobs the previous two months, suddenly for no apparent reason created 810,000 jobs! This in spite of the fact that the employer survey shows no serious variation from the trend.






I suppose you could cite the similarly odd number from January 2012, which purports to show 712,000 new jobs created, and use this as evidence that the household survey varies wildly and therefore what it showed in September is not all that unusual. But January 2012 did show relatively strong growth coming out of the employer survey, whereas September 2012 showed no such thing.






The bottom line here is that we have to measure the strength of the argument of those who believe

there was faking going on against those trying to deny it. In our camp we have a) implausible numbers; b) motive; c) sources inside Census Bureau, one of whom has given his name; and d) an administration we already know is willing to use manipulate government agencies for political purposes. In their camp is a) an official government denial; and b) apologists who follow the usual script whenever conservatives catch Obama doing something wrong.






You decide.