The reports echo what Thomas Perez in the Labor Department and the President want reported, on behalf of a failed administration. That is way the seasonally adjusted data soft-pedals the 94,298,000 Americans relegated to Not in Labor Force standing by the BLS. Since it fell from the record high 95,051,000 in January, at least some might argue Obama's largest increase of any individual BLS count showed a modestly positive trajectory for one month, at least. Slow clap.
A few more figures are worth considering in light of claims of an impressive February Employment Situation Report from the President's team at the Labor Department. Of the 242,000 jobs reported to have been added according to CES data gathered from around 165,000 businesses, it's important to note roughly 200,000 of those supposed gains materialize monthly based upon the birth and death cycle invention the BLS implemented from 2003 onward during months not considered recessionary for an assumed "dynamic economy". Americans find this treatment of the facts less compelling than the President's appointees.
The not seasonally adjusted counts are hardest to compare and least accurate in January and February, since major changes to BLS estimates conceived in 2000 were gradually implemented through 2003 for the expressed purpose of adjusting for population controls. Unfortunately, the reality since the change was introduced has seen not seasonally adjusted figures progressively separate from actual survey data to more nearly approximate what BLS statisticians' insist they were seeing or anticipated in ensuing months to bring actual collected data more in line with their predictions.
As a result of the adjustment process begun early this millennium, January's not seasonally adjusted count from about 165,000 businesses showed a loss of 2,961,000 employed Americans, falling from 144,116,000 to 141,155,000 on January figures. With February the second least accurate month of the year, as statisticians work to bring real data more in line with their vision of the workforce, a counterbalancing 850,000 jobs were added after successive months of job losses on Household Survey counts showed a repeat of late 2008 to 2009 results. Ahead of February's modest gains partially offsetting January's 3 million jobs lost by Not Seasonally Adjusted counts, job losses across four of the last six months on CPS counts showed workforce results skewing negative precisely the same number of months as the six-month period through January, 2009.
On Household Survey numbers, January's 666,000 loss of jobs (adjusted for population controls) was followed by 932,000 supposed jobs added, while statisticians' worked to bring figures more in line with their seasonally adjusted estimates. Without further comment about the creative and potentially misleading figures early each new year since 2003, February's Employment Situation Report unquestionably appeared to be the best report on the past four months. Of course, that's in light of 1,107,000 part time jobs added in November, while just 50,000 jobs were added overall, according to nsa survey responses.
In January, the reported 666,000 jobs lost, paired with 384,000 part time jobs added, turned into the second month out of the last three during which Labor Department figures recorded upwards of 1,050,000 full time breadwinner jobs lost. So the bar for February looking like an improvement wasn't altogether high. It just needed to improve from devastatingly bad numbers late in 2015 through January's first ESR for 2016.
Since a range of measures all supported jobs added to the economy in February, let's look at a breakdown of who gained jobs and what kind of jobs those actually were, according to the Household Survey results. 18 yo 19 year olds gained 103,000 jobs in February, while 16 to 17 year olds added 15,000 more for teens increasing jobs numbers by 118,000 for the month. The age group having gained the most jobs is shown as 55 years and older at 393,000 jobs on Household Data Table A-9, but incredibly, 227,000 of those went to super-seniors 65 years and over who reentered the workforce to supplement retirement income, according to HD Table A-6.
Hispanics turned in another banner month with 362,000 jobs added, which was softened somewhat by statisticians' more modest 300,000 seasonally adjusted estimate for the month. Since January 2009, Hispanics have gained 5,514,000 jobs, showing 24,967,000 employed after starting Obama's Presidency holding 19,453,000 jobs. The foreign born gained another 63,000 jobs and are second only to Hispanics with 4,301,000 jobs gained since they first appeared as a newly counted demographic on HD Table A-7 in January 2010. In February, the foreign born held 25,391,000 jobs, while their first official appearance on BLS counts showed 21,090,000 in January, 2010. Asians continued relentless workforce gains with an impressive 294,000 jobs added, which meant nearly three-quarters-of-a-million jobs went to Hispanics, the foreign born, and Asians combined, turning into 719,000 more jobs for mostly foreign demographics in February alone.
A remarkable 676,000 part time jobs were added in February, again, nearly doubling the 346,000 full time jobs based partly on the first months of the year's adjustments for "population controls" which make January, and to a lesser extent, February figures suspect, to say the least. The BLS acknowledged the anomalies by showing just 75,000 full time jobs added, while estimating 489,000 part time jobs added on seasonally adjusted figures from HD Table A-9. Since teens and super-seniors combined for 345,000 of the jobs added in February on top of the 719,000 gained by the three predominant foreign bloodline (non-native or recent newcomer) demographics, it seems natural to wonder how America's majority white demographic has fared under Obama.
Thanks to 784,000 jobs added in February, which more than offset the 357,000 losses estimated in adjustments for population controls in January on HD Table A-1, white Americans have for the first time across Obama's 86 months in Office topped a million jobs gained. At 118,584,000 in February, the nation's majority demographic making up 75.1% of the latest estimated 323,113,125 count from the U.S, Census Bureau has finally reached seven figures with 1,175,000 jobs gained from the 117,409,000 in place more than seven years after Obama was inaugurated January 20, 2009. Blacks or African Americans who make up 13.05% of the populace, according to USCB counts, have shown more than double the majority demographic's job gains at 2,391,000, counting 17,665,000 in February, after recording 15,274,000 in January, 2009.
I'm fully willing to acknowledge February's jobs report is the best of the past four, and arguably the best of the last seven months, a period during which four showed losses on the Household Survey. Nevertheless, in breaking down who's actually benefitting from modest gains, and dissecting some of the internal mechanisms used by the Labor Department for its estimates, most Americans would be horrified to learn what the real data shows. The only actual nationwide count from employers' payroll records is kept by the ETA, where Report r539cy uses state and U.S. territory employment office UI tax records to show a miserable 2,383,292 jobs gained through February 2016. One would think the nearly ten million jobs gained by Hispanics and the foreign born, combined, and 2.4 million more by blacks or African Americans would show clearly enough why the disenfranchised 94,298,000 Not in Labor Force Americans and America's majority demographic employment woes would suggest reason for change.
Record numbers casting ballots in Republican caucuses and primaries, including for the seemingly most aggressive outsider candidate, could be seen as a predictable response to Obama's seven-plus years of painful fundamental change.
Summation - most of the job figures have been skewed to report progress and while foreign workers have benefitted the most from Obama, more people than ever can find gainful employment that isn't part-time. Did Obama create this?
Yup.
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